A week after the Carolina Hurricanes caused a massive social media stir by signing Jesperi Kotkaniemi to a one-year, $6.1 million offer sheet*, the Montreal Canadiens formally declined to match it on Saturday afternoon, causing strong reactions within the hockey world. This has been the first successful offer sheet since 2007, when the Anaheim Ducks weren’t able to match the offer sheet presented to Dustin Penner by the Edmonton Oilers.
As a result of yesterday’s move, the 21-year-old forward will join the Hurricanes for the 2021-22 season, at least, and Carolina will more than likely look to sign the former first-round draft pick to a contract extension. Meanwhile, the Canadiens, who originally drafted Kotkaniemi 3rd overall in the 2018 draft, will receive a first and a third round pick in the 2022 NHL draft as compensation.
In a statement released shortly after the Habs decided to let Kotkaniemi walk away, Hurricanes GM Don Waddell described Kotkaniemi as “a player who has been on our radar since before his draft year.” When Carolina tendered the offer sheet, it was the latest skirmish in what has been a years-long, off-ice battle between the Hurricanes and Canadiens, though the luring away of Kotkaniemi might end up being the decisive blow.
Two years ago, Hurricanes star forward Sebastian Aho received a five-year, $42 million offer sheet from the Canadiens, a deal that the Hurricanes matched begrudgingly. In that context, this latest move by Carolina could be seen as major payback.
Kotkaniemi, a sharpshooter who at times was left out of the lineup last season as Montreal raced to the Stanley Cup Finals, was someone Carolina (and many other teams) clearly coveted. One would have to imagine, however, that hurting specifically the Canadiens in this way was a motivating factor for the Hurricanes.
The Hurricanes noted in their original news release last week that they also offered Kotkaniemi a $20 signing bonus (lol), further fueling the social media chatter that Carolina was trolling Montreal with this bonus. (Aho’s jersey number, perhaps not-so-coincidentally, is 20.)
The contract price, however, is no joke whatsoever, as a winger who finished with just 20 points last season does not often command that high a paycheck in the NHL.
“He wants to come to Carolina,” Waddell said last week. “He sees the core we’ve built here and he wants to be a part of that. We’re proud.”
The Hurricanes — who lost in the second round last season to the non-cap compliant Tampa Bay Lightning (the same team that Montreal eventually lost to) — have salary cap space this offseason because of a few player departures, most notably star defenseman Dougie Hamilton, who signed with the New Jersey Devils.
The core, of which Waddell spoke, remains mostly intact, including Aho, who, at 24 years old, led the team with 57 points. Last month, Carolina also gave a new deal to forward Andrei Svechnikov, 21, securing him for eight years at a cost of $62 million.
“(Kotkaniemi’s) age and natural skill set suggests a very high ceiling, and the opportunity to acquire players like that simply does not come along very often,” Carolina assistant general manager Eric Tulsky said. “Jesperi is a smart player who sees the ice extremely well; it seems like every time he touches the puck, he puts his team in a better position.”
With room under the salary cap to maneuver prior to training camp, (especially important in light of injured captain Shea Weber being out for the season), the prevailing thought around the league was that Montreal would shop Carolina’s draft picks to see if they could land an established forward who could replace Kotkaniemi’s production. That turned out to be the case, as later Saturday night, the Canadiens acquired center Christian Dvorak from the Arizona Coyotes in return for two future draft picks: Arizona will receive either Montreal’s own first-round pick in 2022 or the Carolina choice it just acquired, as well as the Canadiens’ fourth-round pick in 2024.
Dvorak, 25, played in 56 games for Arizona last season, finishing with 17 goals and 31 points. He is respected around the league as a power-play and faceoff specialist, ending the season with a time-on-ice average of 18:24. Dvorak and Kotkaniemi will have a chance to face off against each other early this season.
There is no question that regardless of whether the Canadiens would have chosen to match the Canes offer of 6.1 million per year or accept the compensations, this was going to be a headache for Canadiens GM Marc Bergevin. Matching the offer sheet and paying Kotkaniemi more than what he’s worth would have been the “better” decision, just because of the sheer amount of potential he has. Keeping Kotkaniemi would have also ensured center depth, especially after losing captain Shea Weber to injury and key forward Philip Danault to free agency. I believe the way the Habs approached this offer sheet was by asking themselves, “Do we expect Kotkaniemi to grow into a second-line center capable of 20 goals and 50 points, and is he reliable enough defensively to fill the shoes of Philip Danault?” If the Habs believed Jesperi Kotkaniemi was going to do that, they would have matched the offer. However, if they thought that was unlikely and that he was going to turn into more of a third-liner, averaging 10 goals and 30 points, then letting him go was the right move. Only time will tell whether the Habs’ front office made the right call. I think it all comes down to how accurately they are able to assess their own players.
The only move I question is Bergevin’s decision to immediately replace Kotkaniemi’s vacancy. I believe that waiting to see how Carolina performs this upcoming season would have been a valid option as well. The Hurricanes were a playoff team last season, finishing with the top seed in their division. However, they have lost Vezina trophy finalist Alex Nedeljkovic, who was the player most responsible for the Canes’ run to the playoffs, as well as their #1 defenseman Dougie Hamilton, as mentioned earlier. Clearly, the back end of the Hurricanes has been weakened significantly. History has shown us that every year, a handful of teams that qualify for the playoffs miss them the following year. It is important to note that this past year, the Canes have shown some signs of vulnerability, even in a shortened season. With a weakened defense and sub-par goaltending, it would be interesting to see how the team would hold-up throughout a standard, 82-game season. With the Canes 2022 first round draft pick in possession, a chance at winning the draft lottery at the expense of Carolina wouldn’t have been a bad idea at all. What would have made this choice even more appealing is that the draft class of 2022 is projected to be the deepest since 2005, the year in which Ovechkin and Crosby were drafted. Also, it will be extremely difficult for the Habs to remain competitive, as the Atlantic division is projected to be the toughest in the league next season. Just to give some idea of how competitive this division is, all I have to mention is that it contains not just the back-to-back champion Tampa Bay Lightning, but also the Bruins and the Panthers, who have been stockpiling talent this off-season. The Senators are also expected to perform better than they did last season. Finally, given the fact that the Habs are now 6.7 million over the cap after signing Christian Dvorak, it will be a challenge to add more support while staying under the cap.
Even though I would have done the same if I were GM of the Canadiens, I sincerely hope that Bergevin’s decision to let Jesperi Kotkaniemi walk smacks them in the face like a boomerang.
* An Offer Sheet is a signed and binding contract offer presented to a restricted free agent player whose rights are currently held by another club. Any team (other than the team that currently owns the players rights) can submit an Offer Sheet, with the goal of signing that player.
