- wRC+ takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for important external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.
- ISO measures the raw power of a hitter by taking only extra-base hits — and the type of extra-base hit — into account.
- WAR measures a player’s value in all facets of the game by deciphering how many more wins he’s worth than a replacement-level player at his same position
- FIP is similar to ERA, but it focuses solely on the events a pitcher has the most control over — strikeouts, unintentional walks, hit-by-pitches and home runs. It entirely removes results on balls hit into the field of play.
Definitions from MLB.com
They said the Padres were the team to beat. They said the Padres would have a chance at dethroning the Dodgers. They said it was World Series or bust for the Padres. Petco Park wasn’t full of visiting fans but Padres fans for the first time in over a decade. Back in April, I wrote an article out of pure excitement about the Padres potentially embarrassing the Dodgers. But there’s a reason why World Series rings aren’t handed out during wintertime. That’s because nothing is ever guaranteed. Take a look at the Giants, for instance. Who saw the dominance out of a cheap, rebuilding Giants team that would last into September, threatening to take down the Dodgers coming? No one did. No one saw the underwhelming season the Padres would display either. Over the last month and a half, San Diego has seen its playoff chances go from all but guaranteed (92% on July 27) to worse than a coin flip (38% on September 6).
From a general statistical standpoint, the second half has been ruthless to San Diego. Collectively, their offense has been below average, ranking 20th in wrC+ (96), 22nd in ISO (.160), and 16th in runs scored (193). It’s an extremely frustrating outcome, given that they are striking out at a fairly low rate (21.3 percent ranks seventh), walking plenty (9.5 percent ranks fourth), and are making contact at the second-highest rate among the 30 clubs (78.9 percent). Over the last month, though, they’re hitting only .220 with runners on and the same when they’re in scoring position. Getting runners on base hasn’t been the issue. It’s getting them moving once they are there.
Wil Myers (.308) and Trent Grisham (.275) are the only ones who have succeeded in those types of situations over that span of time. From there, it’s largely a list of guys hitting .240 or below. Adam Frazier is at .238 with runners on, Fernando Tatis, Jr. is at .230, Manny Machado is at .223, and, perhaps surprisingly, Jake Cronenworth is at .215. The more frustrating thing is, that shouldn’t really be the case with any of them. Tatis’ wRC+ in the second half is 151, Machado’s is 117, and Cronenworth is at 116. There’s production there.
For his part, Tatis has continued doing his thing. Despite the fact that his season could have ended any number of times at this point, he’s ISO’ing at .314 and reaching base at a .364 clip even while he strikes out almost 29 percent of the time. Machado’s hitting .287, but walking less than six percent of the time, so he’s only reaching base at a .322 average. Cronenworth isn’t striking out, but isn’t contributing much otherwise. In general, there are a lot of good things happening with this offense, but none of it is in sync, and none of it manifests when the Padres need it to.
Their “significant” trade deadline acquisition hasn’t contributed much either. Adam Frazier, lauded for his contact and on-base skills prior to leaving Pittsburgh, is at a -0.3 WAR in the second half of the year. His on-base is a paltry .277, while his wRC+ sits at 49. His biggest issue? He’s hitting the ball on the ground literally half the time. It was at about 36 percent in the first half of the year.
So you’ve got a dysfunctional-functional offense and a major deadline prize that hasn’t paid off in any meaningful way. What about the pitching?
From a full season standpoint, the Padres have managed to produce on the bump, despite having a staff that has been largely held together by duct tape, paper clips, and gum. They’re top 10 in ERA (3.79), FIP (3.96), strikeouts (9.69/9), and 11th in walks (3.17/9). Those numbers haven’t exactly plunged in the second half. Sure, they’re 21st in ERA (4.65), but 14th in FIP (4.17), fifth in strikeouts (9.60/9), and 13th in walks (3.16/9). Not as great as the whole season picture might look, but also not terrible.
On the rotation front, there is good news. Joe Musgrove has been incredible. Blake Snell has looked very good of late, although he has been a liability for the most part. Chris Paddack is back from injury, though he will be of no help at all. There’s hope Yu Darvish can stave off his recent wave of nagging injuries (back, hip) and return to his early season form. If they can get decent innings out of their starting pitching, which has been a challenge given some health-related issues and high pitch counts, then the outlook improves for them down the stretch. If you have to continue to rely on the 2021 iteration of Jake Arrieta for meaningful innings, then the postseason journey is over before it starts.
The question then becomes whether or not their bullpen can hold. Nobody has thrown more innings than the San Diego relief corps (566.2) and that includes the Tampa Bay Rays and their own special brand of doing things. While Mark Melancon has been very good and Dinelson Lamet’s return could be an addition in that department, Daniel Hudson has been atrocious (7.04 ERA in the second half), as have Tim Hill (6.75 ERA) and Austin Adams (7.07 ERA). For what it’s worth, the latter there (Adams) leads all pitchers with 20 HBP this year. He leads second-place Musgrove (who has thrown over 100 more innings) by five. So while Melancon, Lamet, Pierce Johnson, and Craig Stammen have been of a higher quality, can you get by with such a small supply of reliable arms, especially when it’s an overworked group to begin with?
There are just so many questions for the Padres right now. The offense and its level of “sync,” whether their rotation can supply enough innings to, ironically, provide some relief for an overworked bullpen, and whether that overworked bullpen can pick itself up for another month or two depending on whether this team makes the playoffs. Those are not easy questions to answer, but they’re also questions that a playoff team needs to be able to answer. The good news is that they’re still very much embedded in this race and there’s a lot of time to sort it out. The bad news is that Cincinnati isn’t going anywhere, and it’s a last minute push in St. Louis, and Philly.
To sum all of that up: The Padres did not do enough at the deadline as much as they could have, which left them unable to handle the injuries ahead, which sent them into a slide at just the moment when the teams behind them were picking up steam, which looks especially bad in light of the fact that the upcoming schedule is DISASTROUSLY HARD for San Diego while it’s a relative breeze for Cincinnati and Philly. To give the Padres some credit, they had a deal in place for Max Scherzer only to have the Dodgers offer a ridiculous amount of money to lure Scherzer AND Trea Turner over. The Padres’ pathetic record is no coincidence if we take a look at their performance against teams below .500, which are teams they should be beating consistently. The Padres are 5 games below .500 against the frail Rockies and D Backs who have been out of the race even before the season was underway.
In conclusion, the Padres have been laughable all season. I would go as far as to say that I’d want Dodgers fans to trash the Padres because they have been a joke that hasn’t been covered enough because the big market teams always hog the attention. Maybe the good news outweighs the bad, but it’s tough to find a genuine path for the Padres this year. Perhaps 2022 will be the year the Padres breakthrough.
