Tomas Hertl is a top 15-20 center in the NHL. His 2.42 5v5 points per 60 minutes scoring rate puts him in high demand. For reference, his rate of 5v5 scoring was above the likes of Mark Scheifele, Sean Couturier, Gabriel Landeskog, John Tavares, and Evgeni Malkin in 2020-21.
But now, things are souring between Hertl and the Sharks. Per The Athletic’s Kevin Kurz, the Czech center was one of multiple players to complain about Evander Kane in meetings at the conclusion of last season. Reportedly the 2012 first-rounder is yet to be approached by his team about a contract extension.
His bridge deal at a bargain $5.625 million annual average value (AAV) expires after the 2021-22 season. Hertl has been cited as saying he will begin next season with San Jose. However, there appears to be very little confidence he will remain in black and teal for the duration of the upcoming season.
So, what does this mean for Hertl? If Doug Wilson is delaying his talks about contract extensions, there is a strong possibility the general manager lacks faith in his current team and foresees a possible trade at the next trade deadline. If the Sharks are rebuilding, they could receive quality future assets for him. A great comparison would be the Vegas Golden Knights’ acquisition of Max Pacioretty. This deal saw the Montreal Canadiens add a second-round pick, a solid forward in Tomas Tatar, and a potential first-line center in Nick Suzuki.The Sharks’ prospect pool is in desperate need of quality talent at center and the right side of the defense. Down the middle, San Jose has William Eklund and Thomas Bordeleau, whose playstyles and size may work better as wingers. The team’s only notable right-handed prospects to replace the aging Erik Karlsson and Brent Burns are Ryan Merkley and Gannon Laroque. The club should be looking for talent at these positions in possible trades. So, with that in mind, who has the need for Hertl, and what would their potential offer for Hertl look like?
Minnesota Wild
In my opinion, the Minnesota Wild are the most likely candidate to acquire Hertl. They have stellar wingers such as Kirill Kaprizov and Kevin Fiala, but besides Joel Eriksson Ek, the team’s center depth lacks tremendous upside. In a very competitive Central Division, the Wild need all the help they can get.
The tricky part with Minnesota rests in their long term cap space. The team, according to CapFriendly, has $12 million in cap space with Kaprizov bound to sign a large extension soon. However, Kevin Fiala, Jordan Greenway, Victor Rask, and Alex Goligoski all have contracts that expire after the upcoming season. This makes affording Hertl long term slightly tricky.
But, the Wild certainly have numerous attractive assets that would entice the Sharks. Their recent highly-touted first-round picks of Jesper Wallstedt, Marco Rossi, and Matthew Boldy are quality assets, but would be hard to give up for Minnesota.
A recent selection that the Sharks would have interest in would be Marat Khusnutdinov. The center fits the mold of many Doug Wilson, Jr. draft picks: smaller, skilled, and offensively gifted. Khusnutdinov was also selected 37th overall in 2020, one spot ahead of when the Sharks selected the also small and skilled Bordeleau. The Wild also have numerous, interesting defensive prospects such as Calen Addison, Carson Lambos, and Jack Peart.
The Wild’s need for centers, current cap space for taking on Hertl with retained salary, and plethora of intriguing prospects make them my most likely destination for him. For a mock trade, I’ll suggest Khustadinov and a 2022 first-round pick for Hertl. There may be a need for salary to be moved for the Wild to extend the Czech center long term.
Boston Bruins
With David Krejci leaving the NHL for a return to the Czech Republic, the Boston Bruins could really use a boost to their center depth. A 1-2 punch of Patrice Bergeron and Hertl would really elevate the Bruins’ odds in a tough Eastern Conference.
The 2020 second-round pick Mason Lohrei is a highly attractive candidate, but the Sharks’ depth at left defense with Mario Ferraro, Nikolai Knyzhov, Artemi Kniazev, and Santeri Hatakka is set for the future. John Beecher, 30th-overall pick in 2019 and teammate of Bordeleau at the University of Michigan, would be a possible piece in a Hertl trade. However, he’s far from a guarantee to slot into a large role in an NHL lineup, which is what San Jose needs.
Boston has their first- and second-round picks in the upcoming drafts, if the Sharks want to target draft capital in the 2022 or 2023 NHL Drafts. The main issue in trading with the Bruins lies in their lacking cap space. Even if the Sharks retain a portion of Hertl’s contract, Boston would still need to move out salary to make a trade work. This trade would also solely be a rental for the Bruins, unless they view Hertl as the replacement for Bergeron, whose contract also expires after the upcoming season. Top defenseman Charlie McAvoy is also in need of a large raise in the next offseason.
Tentatively, I would present a mock trade from the Bruins as Beecher, a 2022 first-round pick, and a low-level prospect or late pick for Hertl with salary retention. There would be a need for more salary to be moved from Boston, which could potentially be part of this trade.
Vegas Golden Knights
To be honest, I think this is by far the least likely option. A team sending their best player to a huge rival is quite unlikely. If the Sharks and Knights were not in the same division, I feel the two teams could make a deal here.
The Golden Knights have been a competitive team since entering the league, competing in the Conference Final in three of their four NHL seasons. And Vegas has young centers such as Peyton Krebs and recently acquired Nolan Patrick to help their depth up the middle. But for a contending team, a center core that boasts William Karlsson and Chandler Stephenson as their best contributors could be what prevents them from a Stanley Cup.
The Sharks would need to retain salary on Hertl, and perhaps take on another contract from Vegas, due to their salary cap situation. Hertl could likely sign an extension if dealt here, due to large contracts soon leaving the Knights’ payroll.
In a Hertl trade, adding Peyton Krebs should certainly be the goal, but I’m not quite sure it’s easily attainable. The 17th-overall pick dominated the Western Hockey League (WHL) with 13 goals and 43 points in 24 games, before turning professional and notching a goal and five points in five games.
The other notable prospect would be a linemate of Bordeleau at Michigan — 2020 29th-overall pick Brendan Brisson has the capability to slot as a center, but played as a winger in Ann Arbor where he put up 10 goals and 21 points in 24 games. For a mock trade, I’ll present two for the Golden Knights. The first would be Krebs and a second- or third-round pick in exchange for Hertl. Second, would be a more likely acquisition of a first-round pick and Brisson for San Jose. Again, an intra-division dealing of Hertl is extremely unlikely.
If the Sharks appear to be beginning a long-term rebuild, or decide extending Hertl is not financially viable, the fan favorite will be traded away. In that trade, the Sharks must acquire future assets to improve the team and hopefully the eventual replacement for Hertl.
